Villarreal 3–1 Napoli — Match Recap & Tip Analysis

Villarreal faced Napoli in Champions League on 13 October 2026. The match ended **3–1**, with Villarreal taking the victory over Napoli. We placed **6 tips** on this match — **1 won** and **5 lost** (17% hit rate). ## Tip Results ❌ **Double Chance (X2)** @ 1.78 (confidence: 58%) — **LOST** The result fell outside the double chance coverage. ❌ **Under 3.5 Goals** @ 1.51 (confidence: 67%) — **LOST** 4 goals — the 3.5 line went the other way. ❌ **Under 4.5 Cards** @ 1.75 (confidence: 65%) — **LOST** 5 cards — the 4.5 line went the other way. ❌ **Over 8.5 Corners** @ 1.56 (confidence: 64%) — **LOST** 8 corners — the 8.5 line went the other way. ✅ **Over 0.5 Goals (1st Half)** @ 1.36 (confidence: 72%) — **WON** ⭐ Main Tip 3 first-half goals — clear of the 0.5 line. ❌ **Correct Score: 1-1** @ 6.90 (confidence: 12%) — **LOST** This prediction missed. ## Summary | Tip | Odds | Confidence | Result | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Double Chance (X2) | 1.78 | 58% | ❌ LOST | | Under 3.5 Goals | 1.51 | 67% | ❌ LOST | | Under 4.5 Cards | 1.75 | 65% | ❌ LOST | | Over 8.5 Corners | 1.56 | 64% | ❌ LOST | | Over 0.5 Goals (1st Half) ⭐ | 1.36 | 72% | ✅ WON | | Correct Score: 1-1 | 6.90 | 12% | ❌ LOST | **Overall: 1 of 6 tips won** (17% hit rate). ## Statistical Analysis | Stat | Expected | Actual | | --- | --- | --- | | Goals | 2.89 | 4 | | Corners | 10.0 | 8 | | Yellow Cards | 3.9 | 5 | | 1st Half Goal Chance | 72% | Yes (3) | The match exceeded our expected goals model significantly — a higher-scoring affair than the statistics suggested. ## Head-to-Head History 17.12.22 Napoli 2-3 Villarreal | 25.02.16 Napoli 1-1 Villarreal | 18.02.16 Villarreal 1-0 Napoli | 07.12.11 Villarreal 0-2 Napoli | 27.09.11 Napoli 2-0 Villarreal ## Pre-Match Odds | Villarreal Win | Draw | Napoli Win | | --- | --- | --- | | 2.12 | 3.60 | 3.50 | --- *This match recap was automatically generated by EagleTips from real match data, market odds and our own statistical model.*