Sweden 3–1 Poland — Match Recap & Tip Analysis

Sweden faced Poland in Nations League on 28 September 2026. The match ended **3–1**, with Sweden taking the victory over Poland. We placed **4 tips** on this match — **2 won** and **2 lost** (50% hit rate). ## Tip Results ❌ **Double Chance (X2)** @ 1.75 (confidence: 56%) — **LOST** The result fell outside the double chance coverage. ✅ **Over 3.5 Goals** @ 2.72 (confidence: 54%) — **WON** ⭐ Main Tip 4 goals — clear of the 3.5 line. ❌ **Over 2.5 Cards** @ 1.34 (confidence: 71%) — **LOST** 0 cards — the 2.5 line went the other way. ✅ **Under 10.5 Corners** @ 1.45 (confidence: 67%) — **WON** 8 corners — clear of the 10.5 line. ## Summary | Tip | Odds | Confidence | Result | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Double Chance (X2) | 1.75 | 56% | ❌ LOST | | Over 3.5 Goals ⭐ | 2.72 | 54% | ✅ WON | | Over 2.5 Cards | 1.34 | 71% | ❌ LOST | | Under 10.5 Corners | 1.45 | 67% | ✅ WON | **Overall: 2 of 4 tips won** (50% hit rate). ## Statistical Analysis | Stat | Expected | Actual | | --- | --- | --- | | Goals | 3.84 | 4 | | Corners | 9.2 | 8 | | Yellow Cards | 4.0 | 4 | | 1st Half Goal Chance | 82% | — | The actual goals were close to our expected model, confirming our statistical analysis was well-calibrated. ## Head-to-Head History 31.03.26 Sweden 3-2 Poland | 29.03.22 Poland 2-0 Sweden | 23.06.21 Sweden 3-2 Poland | 05.06.04 Sweden 3-1 Poland | 10.09.03 Poland 0-2 Sweden ## Pre-Match Odds | Sweden Win | Draw | Poland Win | | --- | --- | --- | | 2.17 | 3.65 | 3.35 | --- *This match recap was automatically generated by EagleTips from real match data, market odds and our own statistical model.*