Rio Ave 3–2 Nacional — Match Recap & Tip Analysis

Rio Ave faced Nacional in Primeira Liga on 11 October 2026. The match ended **3–2**, with Rio Ave taking the victory over Nacional. We placed **6 tips** on this match — **3 won** and **3 lost** (50% hit rate). ## Tip Results ❌ **Double Chance (X2)** @ 1.75 (confidence: 59%) — **LOST** The result fell outside the double chance coverage. ✅ **Over 1.5 Goals** @ 1.32 (confidence: 75%) — **WON** 5 goals — clear of the 1.5 line. ✅ **Under 6.5 Cards** @ 1.42 (confidence: 80%) — **WON** ⭐ Main Tip 3 cards — clear of the 6.5 line. ❌ **Under 9.5 Corners** @ 2.12 (confidence: 51%) — **LOST** 16 corners — the 9.5 line went the other way. ✅ **Over 0.5 Goals (1st Half)** @ 1.44 (confidence: 68%) — **WON** 2 first-half goals — clear of the 0.5 line. ❌ **Correct Score: 1-1** @ 6.10 (confidence: 12%) — **LOST** This prediction missed. ## Summary | Tip | Odds | Confidence | Result | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Double Chance (X2) | 1.75 | 59% | ❌ LOST | | Over 1.5 Goals | 1.32 | 75% | ✅ WON | | Under 6.5 Cards ⭐ | 1.42 | 80% | ✅ WON | | Under 9.5 Corners | 2.12 | 51% | ❌ LOST | | Over 0.5 Goals (1st Half) | 1.44 | 68% | ✅ WON | | Correct Score: 1-1 | 6.10 | 12% | ❌ LOST | **Overall: 3 of 6 tips won** (50% hit rate). ## Statistical Analysis | Stat | Expected | Actual | | --- | --- | --- | | Goals | 2.72 | 5 | | Corners | 9.7 | 16 | | Yellow Cards | 4.5 | 3 | | 1st Half Goal Chance | 70% | Yes (2) | The match exceeded our expected goals model significantly — a higher-scoring affair than the statistics suggested. ## Head-to-Head History 25.01.26 Nacional 4-0 Rio Ave | 17.08.25 Rio Ave 1-1 Nacional | 10.05.25 Nacional 3-3 Rio Ave | 29.12.24 Rio Ave 2-1 Nacional | 31.07.24 Rio Ave 1-1 Nacional ## Pre-Match Odds | Rio Ave Win | Draw | Nacional Win | | --- | --- | --- | | 2.17 | 3.40 | 3.55 | --- *This match recap was automatically generated by EagleTips from real match data, market odds and our own statistical model.*