Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo Vallecano — Match Recap & Tip Analysis

Real Madrid faced Rayo Vallecano in LaLiga on 12 September 2026. The match ended **4–1**, with Real Madrid taking the victory over Rayo Vallecano. We placed **5 tips** on this match — **3 won** and **2 lost** (60% hit rate). ## Tip Results ✅ **Over 3.5 Goals** @ 1.72 (confidence: 61%) — **WON** ⭐ Main Tip 5 goals — clear of the 3.5 line. ❌ **Over 2.5 Cards** @ 1.35 (confidence: 72%) — **LOST** This prediction missed. ✅ **Over 8.5 Corners** @ 1.39 (confidence: 70%) — **WON** The corner count went our way. ✅ **Over 1.5 Goals (2nd Half)** @ 1.45 (confidence: 70%) — **WON** The second half produced over 1.5 goals. ❌ **Correct Score: 3-0** @ 7.70 (confidence: 8%) — **LOST** This prediction missed. ## Summary | Tip | Odds | Confidence | Result | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Over 3.5 Goals ⭐ | 1.72 | 61% | ✅ WON | | Over 2.5 Cards | 1.35 | 72% | ❌ LOST | | Over 8.5 Corners | 1.39 | 70% | ✅ WON | | Over 1.5 Goals (2nd Half) | 1.45 | 70% | ✅ WON | | Correct Score: 3-0 | 7.70 | 8% | ❌ LOST | **Overall: 3 of 5 tips won** (60% hit rate). ## Statistical Analysis | Stat | Expected | Actual | | --- | --- | --- | | Goals | 4.23 | 5 | | Corners | 10.6 | — | | Yellow Cards | 4.0 | — | | 1st Half Goal Chance | 84% | — | The actual goals were close to our expected model, confirming our statistical analysis was well-calibrated. ## Head-to-Head History 01.02.26 Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano | 09.11.25 Rayo Vallecano 0-0 Real Madrid | 09.03.25 Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano ## Pre-Match Odds | Real Madrid Win | Draw | Rayo Vallecano Win | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.17 | 8.90 | 17.50 | A predictable result, with the winner heavily favoured at 1.17. --- *This match recap was automatically generated by EagleTips from real match data, market odds and our own statistical model.*