Fiorentina 1–1 Napoli — Match Recap & Tip Analysis

Fiorentina faced Napoli in Serie A on 20 September 2026. The match ended **1–1** in a draw. We placed **6 tips** on this match — **3 won** and **3 lost** (50% hit rate). ## Tip Results ✅ **Double Chance (X2)** @ 1.36 (confidence: 71%) — **WON** The 1–1 result covered this double chance selection. ❌ **Over 2.5 Goals** @ 1.90 (confidence: 57%) — **LOST** ⭐ Main Tip 2 goals — the 2.5 line went the other way. ❌ **Over 2.5 Cards** @ 1.82 (confidence: 56%) — **LOST** 0 cards — the 2.5 line went the other way. ✅ **Under 10.5 Corners** @ 1.37 (confidence: 70%) — **WON** 9 corners — clear of the 10.5 line. ✅ **Over 0.5 Goals (1st Half)** @ 1.40 (confidence: 74%) — **WON** 1 first-half goal — clear of the 0.5 line. ❌ **Correct Score: 2-1** @ 11.00 (confidence: 9%) — **LOST** This prediction missed. ## Summary | Tip | Odds | Confidence | Result | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Double Chance (X2) | 1.36 | 71% | ✅ WON | | Over 2.5 Goals ⭐ | 1.90 | 57% | ❌ LOST | | Over 2.5 Cards | 1.82 | 56% | ❌ LOST | | Under 10.5 Corners | 1.37 | 70% | ✅ WON | | Over 0.5 Goals (1st Half) | 1.40 | 74% | ✅ WON | | Correct Score: 2-1 | 11.00 | 9% | ❌ LOST | **Overall: 3 of 6 tips won** (50% hit rate). ## Statistical Analysis | Stat | Expected | Actual | | --- | --- | --- | | Goals | 2.98 | 2 | | Corners | 8.9 | 9 | | Yellow Cards | 3.1 | 3 | | 1st Half Goal Chance | 73% | Yes (1) | The actual goals were close to our expected model, confirming our statistical analysis was well-calibrated. ## Head-to-Head History 31.01.26 Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina | 13.09.25 Fiorentina 1-3 Napoli | 09.03.25 Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina | 04.01.25 Fiorentina 0-3 Napoli | 17.05.24 Fiorentina 2-2 Napoli ## Pre-Match Odds | Fiorentina Win | Draw | Napoli Win | | --- | --- | --- | | 3.35 | 3.45 | 2.25 | --- *This match recap was automatically generated by EagleTips from real match data, market odds and our own statistical model.*