Derby 0–3 Swansea — Match Recap & Tip Analysis

Derby faced Swansea in Championship on 29 August 2026. The match ended **0–3**, with Swansea taking the victory over Derby. We placed **6 tips** on this match — **2 won** and **4 lost** (33% hit rate). ## Tip Results ✅ **Double Chance (X2)** @ 1.62 (confidence: 61%) — **WON** The 0–3 result covered this double chance selection. ❌ **Under 2.5 Goals** @ 1.75 (confidence: 57%) — **LOST** The match produced 3 goals, exceeding the 2.5 line. ✅ **Over 2.5 Cards** @ 1.57 (confidence: 65%) — **WON** ⭐ Main Tip This prediction was correct. ❌ **Under 10.5 Corners** @ 1.67 (confidence: 56%) — **LOST** The corner market didn't hit. ❌ **Under 1.5 Goals (1st Half)** @ 1.37 (confidence: 73%) — **LOST** The first half saw more than 1.5 goals, going against our under prediction. ❌ **Correct Score: 1-1** @ 6.40 (confidence: 13%) — **LOST** This prediction missed. ## Summary | Tip | Odds | Confidence | Result | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Double Chance (X2) | 1.62 | 61% | ✅ WON | | Under 2.5 Goals | 1.75 | 57% | ❌ LOST | | Over 2.5 Cards ⭐ | 1.57 | 65% | ✅ WON | | Under 10.5 Corners | 1.67 | 56% | ❌ LOST | | Under 1.5 Goals (1st Half) | 1.37 | 73% | ❌ LOST | | Correct Score: 1-1 | 6.40 | 13% | ❌ LOST | **Overall: 2 of 6 tips won** (33% hit rate). ## Statistical Analysis | Stat | Expected | Actual | | --- | --- | --- | | Goals | 2.42 | 3 | | Corners | 10.2 | 11 | | Yellow Cards | 3.6 | 5 | | 1st Half Goal Chance | 66% | Yes (2) | The actual goals were close to our expected model, confirming our statistical analysis was well-calibrated. ## Head-to-Head History 14.02.26 Derby 2-0 Swansea | 25.11.25 Swansea 1-2 Derby | 05.04.25 Swansea 1-0 Derby | 27.11.24 Derby 1-2 Swansea | 09.04.22 Swansea 2-1 Derby ## Pre-Match Odds | Derby Win | Draw | Swansea Win | | --- | --- | --- | | 2.32 | 3.25 | 3.20 | An upset result — the market had the winner as the underdog at 3.20. --- *This match recap was automatically generated by EagleTips from real match data, market odds and our own statistical model.*