Casa Pia 1–4 FC Porto — Match Recap & Tip Analysis

Casa Pia faced FC Porto in Primeira Liga on 12 September 2026. The match ended **1–4**, with FC Porto taking the victory over Casa Pia. We placed **6 tips** on this match — **3 won** and **3 lost** (50% hit rate). ## Tip Results ✅ **FC Porto to Win** @ 1.23 (confidence: 81%) — **WON** This prediction was correct. ❌ **Under 3.5 Goals** @ 1.55 (confidence: 68%) — **LOST** 5 goals — the 3.5 line went the other way. ✅ **Under 5.5 Cards** @ 1.50 (confidence: 73%) — **WON** ⭐ Main Tip 5 cards — clear of the 5.5 line. ✅ **Over 7.5 Corners** @ 1.39 (confidence: 69%) — **WON** 15 corners — clear of the 7.5 line. ❌ **Under 2.5 Goals (2nd Half)** @ 1.31 (confidence: 78%) — **LOST** 3 second-half goals — the 2.5 line went the other way. ❌ **Correct Score: 0-2** @ 5.80 (confidence: 24%) — **LOST** This prediction missed. ## Summary | Tip | Odds | Confidence | Result | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FC Porto to Win | 1.23 | 81% | ✅ WON | | Under 3.5 Goals | 1.55 | 68% | ❌ LOST | | Under 5.5 Cards ⭐ | 1.50 | 73% | ✅ WON | | Over 7.5 Corners | 1.39 | 69% | ✅ WON | | Under 2.5 Goals (2nd Half) | 1.31 | 78% | ❌ LOST | | Correct Score: 0-2 | 5.80 | 24% | ❌ LOST | **Overall: 3 of 6 tips won** (50% hit rate). ## Statistical Analysis | Stat | Expected | Actual | | --- | --- | --- | | Goals | 2.84 | 5 | | Corners | 9.4 | 15 | | Yellow Cards | 4.3 | 5 | | 1st Half Goal Chance | 71% | — | The match exceeded our expected goals model significantly — a higher-scoring affair than the statistics suggested. ## Head-to-Head History 02.02.26 Casa Pia 2-1 FC Porto | 24.08.25 FC Porto 4-0 Casa Pia | 12.04.25 Casa Pia 0-1 FC Porto ## Pre-Match Odds | Casa Pia Win | Draw | FC Porto Win | | --- | --- | --- | | 13.00 | 6.60 | 1.23 | A predictable result, with the winner heavily favoured at 1.23. --- *This match recap was automatically generated by EagleTips from real match data, market odds and our own statistical model.*