Bulgaria 1–2 Luxembourg — Match Recap & Tip AnalysisBulgaria faced Luxembourg in Nations League on 26 September 2026. The match ended **1–2**, with Luxembourg taking the victory over Bulgaria. We placed **6 tips** on this match — **5 won** and **1 lost** (83% hit rate). ## Tip Results ✅ **Double Chance (X2)** @ 1.65 (confidence: 59%) — **WON** The 1–2 result covered this double chance selection. ✅ **Over 1.5 Goals** @ 1.46 (confidence: 67%) — **WON** 3 goals — clear of the 1.5 line. ✅ **Under 6.5 Cards** @ 1.50 (confidence: 63%) — **WON** ⭐ Main Tip 0 cards — clear of the 6.5 line. ✅ **Under 9.5 Corners** @ 1.55 (confidence: 63%) — **WON** 9 corners — clear of the 9.5 line. ✅ **Over 0.5 Goals (2nd Half)** @ 1.34 (confidence: 73%) — **WON** 1 second-half goal — clear of the 0.5 line. ❌ **Correct Score: 1-1** @ 5.90 (confidence: 13%) — **LOST** This prediction missed. ## Summary | Tip | Odds | Confidence | Result | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Double Chance (X2) | 1.65 | 59% | ✅ WON | | Over 1.5 Goals | 1.46 | 67% | ✅ WON | | Under 6.5 Cards ⭐ | 1.50 | 63% | ✅ WON | | Under 9.5 Corners | 1.55 | 63% | ✅ WON | | Over 0.5 Goals (2nd Half) | 1.34 | 73% | ✅ WON | | Correct Score: 1-1 | 5.90 | 13% | ❌ LOST | **Overall: 5 of 6 tips won** (83% hit rate). ## Statistical Analysis | Stat | Expected | Actual | | --- | --- | --- | | Goals | 2.30 | 3 | | Corners | 8.7 | 9 | | Yellow Cards | 5.8 | 4 | | 1st Half Goal Chance | 64% | — | The actual goals were close to our expected model, confirming our statistical analysis was well-calibrated. ## Head-to-Head History 15.11.24 Luxembourg 0-1 Bulgaria | 12.10.24 Bulgaria 0-0 Luxembourg | 20.11.22 Luxembourg 0-0 Bulgaria | 10.10.17 Luxembourg 1-1 Bulgaria | 06.09.16 Bulgaria 4-3 Luxembourg ## Pre-Match Odds | Bulgaria Win | Draw | Luxembourg Win | | --- | --- | --- | | 2.35 | 3.15 | 3.30 | An upset result — the market had the winner as the underdog at 3.30. --- *This match recap was automatically generated by EagleTips from real match data, market odds and our own statistical model.*