Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City — Match Recap & Tip Analysis

Aston Villa faced Manchester City in Premier League on 24 October 2026. The match ended **2–1**, with Aston Villa taking the victory over Manchester City. We placed **7 tips** on this match — **3 won** and **4 lost** (43% hit rate). ## Tip Results ✅ **Double Chance (1X)** @ 2.30 (confidence: 48%) — **WON** The 2–1 result covered this double chance selection. ❌ **Over 3.5 Goals** @ 2.12 (confidence: 56%) — **LOST** 3 goals — the 3.5 line went the other way. ✅ **Both Teams to Score or Over 2.5 Goals** @ 1.27 (confidence: 80%) — **WON** 3 goals — clear of the 2.5 line. ❌ **Under 5.5 Cards** @ 1.34 (confidence: 72%) — **LOST** ⭐ Main Tip 8 cards — the 5.5 line went the other way. ❌ **Under 10.5 Corners** @ 1.67 (confidence: 59%) — **LOST** 11 corners — the 10.5 line went the other way. ✅ **Over 1.5 Goals (2nd Half)** @ 1.67 (confidence: 65%) — **WON** 2 second-half goals — clear of the 1.5 line. ❌ **Correct Score: 2-2** @ 12.00 (confidence: 7%) — **LOST** This prediction missed. ## Summary | Tip | Odds | Confidence | Result | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Double Chance (1X) | 2.30 | 48% | ✅ WON | | Over 3.5 Goals | 2.12 | 56% | ❌ LOST | | Both Teams to Score or Over 2.5 Goals | 1.27 | 80% | ✅ WON | | Under 5.5 Cards ⭐ | 1.34 | 72% | ❌ LOST | | Under 10.5 Corners | 1.67 | 59% | ❌ LOST | | Over 1.5 Goals (2nd Half) | 1.67 | 65% | ✅ WON | | Correct Score: 2-2 | 12.00 | 7% | ❌ LOST | **Overall: 3 of 7 tips won** (43% hit rate). ## Statistical Analysis | Stat | Expected | Actual | | --- | --- | --- | | Goals | 3.96 | 3 | | Corners | 9.9 | 11 | | Yellow Cards | 4.3 | 8 | | 1st Half Goal Chance | 82% | — | The actual goals were close to our expected model, confirming our statistical analysis was well-calibrated. ## Head-to-Head History 24.05.26 Manchester City 1-2 Aston Villa | 26.10.25 Aston Villa 1-0 Manchester City | 22.04.25 Manchester City 2-1 Aston Villa | 21.12.24 Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City | 03.04.24 Manchester City 4-1 Aston Villa ## Pre-Match Odds | Aston Villa Win | Draw | Manchester City Win | | --- | --- | --- | | 4.75 | 4.55 | 2.95 | An upset result — the market had the winner as the underdog at 4.75. --- *This match recap was automatically generated by EagleTips from real match data, market odds and our own statistical model.*