Arouca 1–0 Estrela — Match Recap & Tip Analysis

Arouca faced Estrela in Primeira Liga on 11 October 2026. The match ended **1–0**, with Arouca taking the victory over Estrela. We placed **6 tips** on this match — **2 won** and **4 lost** (33% hit rate). ## Tip Results ✅ **Arouca to Win** @ 2.18 (confidence: 48%) — **WON** This prediction was correct. ❌ **Over 2.5 Goals** @ 1.90 (confidence: 62%) — **LOST** ⭐ Main Tip 1 goal — the 2.5 line went the other way. ❌ **Under 5.5 Cards** @ 1.88 (confidence: 57%) — **LOST** 7 cards — the 5.5 line went the other way. ❌ **Under 9.5 Corners** @ 1.64 (confidence: 60%) — **LOST** 11 corners — the 9.5 line went the other way. ✅ **Over 0.5 Goals (1st Half)** @ 1.40 (confidence: 76%) — **WON** 1 first-half goal — clear of the 0.5 line. ❌ **Correct Score: 2-1** @ 8.40 (confidence: 8%) — **LOST** This prediction missed. ## Summary | Tip | Odds | Confidence | Result | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Arouca to Win | 2.18 | 48% | ✅ WON | | Over 2.5 Goals ⭐ | 1.90 | 62% | ❌ LOST | | Under 5.5 Cards | 1.88 | 57% | ❌ LOST | | Under 9.5 Corners | 1.64 | 60% | ❌ LOST | | Over 0.5 Goals (1st Half) | 1.40 | 76% | ✅ WON | | Correct Score: 2-1 | 8.40 | 8% | ❌ LOST | **Overall: 2 of 6 tips won** (33% hit rate). ## Statistical Analysis | Stat | Expected | Actual | | --- | --- | --- | | Goals | 3.19 | 1 | | Corners | 8.9 | 11 | | Yellow Cards | 5.3 | 7 | | 1st Half Goal Chance | 75% | Yes (1) | Fewer goals than our model predicted. The defences outperformed expectations. ## Head-to-Head History 19.04.26 Arouca 1-0 Estrela | 07.12.25 Estrela 3-1 Arouca | 19.04.25 Arouca 1-0 Estrela | 09.12.24 Estrela 2-1 Arouca | 05.05.24 Arouca 0-0 Estrela ## Pre-Match Odds | Arouca Win | Draw | Estrela Win | | --- | --- | --- | | 2.18 | 3.45 | 3.40 | --- *This match recap was automatically generated by EagleTips from real match data, market odds and our own statistical model.*