Ajax 2–2 Excelsior — Match Recap & Tip Analysis

Ajax faced Excelsior in Eredivisie on 19 September 2026. The match ended **2–2** in a draw. We placed **6 tips** on this match — **3 won** and **3 lost** (50% hit rate). ## Tip Results ❌ **Ajax to Win** @ 1.24 (confidence: 78%) — **LOST** This prediction missed. ✅ **Over 3.5 Goals** @ 1.78 (confidence: 59%) — **WON** ⭐ Main Tip 4 goals — clear of the 3.5 line. ❌ **Over 2.5 Cards** @ 1.85 (confidence: 58%) — **LOST** 0 cards — the 2.5 line went the other way. ✅ **Under 11.5 Corners** @ 1.58 (confidence: 63%) — **WON** 9 corners — clear of the 11.5 line. ✅ **Over 1.5 Goals (2nd Half)** @ 1.47 (confidence: 69%) — **WON** 2 second-half goals — clear of the 1.5 line. ❌ **Correct Score: 2-1** @ 9.10 (confidence: 7%) — **LOST** This prediction missed. ## Summary | Tip | Odds | Confidence | Result | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ajax to Win | 1.24 | 78% | ❌ LOST | | Over 3.5 Goals ⭐ | 1.78 | 59% | ✅ WON | | Over 2.5 Cards | 1.85 | 58% | ❌ LOST | | Under 11.5 Corners | 1.58 | 63% | ✅ WON | | Over 1.5 Goals (2nd Half) | 1.47 | 69% | ✅ WON | | Correct Score: 2-1 | 9.10 | 7% | ❌ LOST | **Overall: 3 of 6 tips won** (50% hit rate). ## Statistical Analysis | Stat | Expected | Actual | | --- | --- | --- | | Goals | 4.14 | 4 | | Corners | 10.5 | 9 | | Yellow Cards | 3.2 | 3 | | 1st Half Goal Chance | 84% | — | The actual goals were close to our expected model, confirming our statistical analysis was well-calibrated. ## Head-to-Head History 01.02.26 Excelsior 2-2 Ajax | 22.11.25 Ajax 1-2 Excelsior | 24.04.24 Ajax 2-2 Excelsior | 19.08.23 Excelsior 2-2 Ajax | 29.01.23 Excelsior 1-4 Ajax ## Pre-Match Odds | Ajax Win | Draw | Excelsior Win | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.24 | 7.00 | 11.25 | --- *This match recap was automatically generated by EagleTips from real match data, market odds and our own statistical model.*